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Informed democrat's latest comments
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22nd Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Lochinvar Yes, that is of course correct but let's just reflect on that comment in some more detail ... The Referendum Act gave no legal status to the referendum ( unlike in previous cases where the legislation granted legal status to the result ) which means that the referendum vote had no legal status. Not did Act specify what a majority actually meant: with a relativley narrow majority in the aggregate and with 2 of the 4 nations of the UK voting one way and the other 2 nations voting the other, it is even less clear what the position really is. The UK's democracy is based on the Parliamentary model where the Sovereignty of Parliament must prevail. That generally means therefore that to be democratic a proper democratic debate in both the Commons and the Lords is required, followed by an Act of Parliament. That is the democratic process. It is far from clear that the Goverment has the democratic authority to circumvent this democratic process by triggering Article 50 without such a democratic debate and Act of Parliament. This is set-out well by a number of people that understand these things far better than you and me. To help, I've attached a link which explains all this in more detail - 7/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/ Then we also have the argument that if people were mis-led ( by whichever side ) then the result of the advisory referendum ( the one that has no legal status ) should in any event be subject to proper scrutiny otherwise it makes a mockery of the democratic process ( assuming that the process is followed in the first place that is). There is some informative stuff to be found on this from the Treasury Select Committee's comments and report in this area: I have no issue with the professionalism or integrity of its output. Personally, irrespective of results and outcomes and issues that are under consideration, I believe all politicians of whatever persuasion should be held accountable - that sounds like a proper democracy to me. To help protect our democracy from abuse the UK system has various in-built checks and safeguards, not least an independent judiciary and its system of appeal, and the rule of law. I believe some of the key democratic issues relating to the referendum will come to fore later this year in the High Court and in the Supreme Court, and elsewhere. However it is reasurring to hear that the democratic process lives on - informed democracy in action - essential for the preservation of our democratic system, complicated as that may initially appear.ViewDate:
16th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Not quite sure what the shouting is supposed to achieve, but anyway let's just run over some of the issues again. Firstly the Referendum Act ( that's the bit under our Parliamentary democracy ) makes it clear that the result of the referendum has no legal standing and secondly it does not in any event define what a conclusive majority under the advisory referendum looks like. Secondly, it is the United Kingdom that is a member of the EU and there are 4 nations that make-up the UK. So that means there is a non-binding referendum ( that does not define what a conclusive advisory majority looks like) where 2 of the 4 nations voted on way and 2 of the 4 nations voted the other way. Even on a simplistic aggregate basis, that all equates to 51 people in a room voting for one thing and 49 people voting for something else: it is immaterial which way round the 51 to 49 figures and 2 to 4 nations votes sit. Then we have the somewhat substantial ( but perhaps tedious matter for you) that it is far from clear whether the UK goverment has the authority to trigger Article 50 without a debate proper debate in both the House of Commons and the Lords and followed by an Act of Parliament. This is a rather serious matter under a Parliamentary democratic system. Further Article 50 makes it clear that the UK ( or any other member ) has to follow its proper constitutional process to be able to legitmately trigger Article 50 and be bound by it. Tad on the important side then for all parties. Thus given its importance the matter will be put to the Supreme Court in October. Given your comments, and in the spirit of informed democratic process, perhaps you should find some way to air your views in the Supreme Court later this month. I am afraid I do not know if that would be possible and if it is what sort of process you would need to follow to do that. All part and parcel of our parliamentry democracatic process, and the protections of having an independent judiciary, following the rule of law and the need to deliver a non-divisive outcome that is in the national interest. Much better than shouting.ViewDate:
16th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Nape I think it best to finally draw a line under this line. I have on 2 occasions explained that the UK does not fund bail outs to the Eurozone countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain - this is because the bail out come from the European Central Bank and the UK does not contribute to the ECB because it is not in the Eurozone. That is a fact so I cannot add anything more. Please also remember that the huge cost of bail outs came from UK taxpayers to bail out UK banks and the UK banks managed to mess that one up all by themselves with no additional help from the EU. It was down to the UK. Please also realise that the UK economy does not score terribly well in many key areas when compared to other comparable EU states - for example the UK's productivity is woefully poor when compared to the likes of Germany, Holland, the Nordics and dare I say it France. This has nothing whatsoever to do with bail outs or a EU conspiracy - the sad fact is the we simply do not stack-up in key areas and need to get our act together. The aforementioned countries all have to abide by the same rules and in comparison to the UK have paid a lot more into the EU's general pot, not to mention contributions to the ECB for those that are in the Euro. Lastly, the UK has the worst current account deficit since 1948 - this has to be financed from inflows of overseas money into the UK to support the UK, not the other way round. Around half of all that required support comes from mainland Europe. Blaming the EU for all the UK's shortcomings is very easy to do but regrettably has little to do with the economic facts. I wish it did as if it were the case the solution would be relatively easy.ViewDate:
14th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello Sailor Nice to hear from you. In the interest of informed discussion and as a matter of fact, the result of the Brexit referendum has no legal force. This is because the Referendum Act 2015 made no provision that the outcome of the Brexit Referendum has any legal status. If you have been led to believe that it does, then as far as I can see you have been misled. Nor did the Refererendum Act 2015 define what a decisive majority looks like. Please contrast this position with the legislation that was passed in 2011 for the Electoral System Referendum which did give legal status to the outcome of that referendum - hence the outcome of that result was legally binding: the difference between the tow situations is clear. The outcome of a general election is legally binding, but that is quite different matter. It is far from clear whether the UK Goverment has constitutional authority to claim that it has the power to say that the outcome of the Brexit vote ( inconclusive as the vote generally was ) is valid by triggering Article 50. The matter will be heard in the Supreme Court later this year. If you have any evidence that this information is incorrect please can you provide full details as I am entirley open to be shown that any of this is incorrect. Please provide source references. Thanks.ViewDate:
11th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello again When I have time I will pick-up your points again in more detail. But as regards the fall in Sterling please look at the charts and the commentary around this and your will see that the correlation is correct and exactly as described. You cannot disregard the AAA downgrading as this is the key measure of creditworthiness. QE followed due to Brexit as per my explanation and is beyond dispute. As to Mr Osborne then I am not defending him - however, it is a matter of degree. As it happens his comments were however backed by reasoned analysis even if they were delivered in a dogmatic manner. If you doubt the difference between this and much if the Leave commentary, then please refer to the Treasury Select Committee report on the Leave campaign and the spurious claims that were made in key areas, all of which can relatively easily be refuted. I can also dig-out legal opinion on the matter if you are still skeptical of the difference in magnitude between the two camps. The other very informative piece comes from a Liverpool University Professor's analysis which provides objective and unbiased evidence of the facts - he doesn't have an axe to grind and is far better informed than either you or me. Thanks for taking the time to respond.ViewDate:
11th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?We deserve better and we must press for better. The wretched referendum has just served to divide and fuel a create civil war mentality culture and that cannot be good for anyone other than the Brexit warlords and others, whatever camp they inhabit. Ironically the more people I speak with the more it seems that there is much consensus on the problems but the differences lie in the proposed solutions. I fear the evidence is that the Brexit solution will end up as even worse ( and far riskier ) than the original problem. Accelerated evolution not revolution would be far better.ViewDate:
11th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello Anf1408 Couple of points which I hope helps to clarify some matters for you: as a direct consequence of the Brexit vote the UK lost its highly value triple AAA credit rating. This is not good for anyone in the UK, just as it is not good if you have your personal credit rating significantly downgraded. Please compare the effects that the financial crisis had on the UK's credit rating and you can see that the Brexit vote does not fare well on the seismic chart. Short term speculation is not the driver - it is the fundamental shift in the economic positioning of the UK economy relative to its pre-Brexit position that is the driver here. Independent rating agencies recognized that the Brexit had unleashed a series of negative, longer-term factors and that the UK's budgetary position would deteriorate; and that the economy will to a lesser or greater degree slow. That means the public finances deteriorate and the UK is henceforth less well placed to service its debts - that means the market dictates the value of the currency ahs to fall. Speculation is a consequence of the substantial decline in the UK's economic and financial position, not the cause, although in the very short-term speculative money can exacerbate market movements. The sheer size of the currency markets mean that speculators ( and central banks ) cannot buck the trend or dictate the direction of travel - that is driven by changes in the economic fundamentals. People often like to try and blame speculators when they find it convenient to do so. The first stage in the severity of the consequences of the Breixt vote have now manifested as a further and substantial round of QE ( money printing ): that serves to further depress the currency ( more money = lower prices, same as it does for potato's, sprouts or beans) and lower interest rates. This has come about as a direct consequence of the Brexit vote, pretty much as predicted. It means the cost of imports rise and interest rates move to negative territory. QE can also serve to artificially inflate the value of paper assets, such as shares and bonds, whose value becomes even more disconnected with the state of the real economy. History has examples of where this can end, including the Japanese imperial military spending boom of the 1930's and subsequent invasions of Korea. The Japanese chancellor tried to turn the taps off but he was hacked to death with samurai swords because his generals had developed at taste for it. Anyhow, the point is that QE is not indicative of a healthy state of affairs. I agree that Mr. Cameron and his crew should be in the dock for this mess, along with others. The Referendum Act did not make the result of the referendum constitutionally binding -it is merely advisory. Nor was the definition of what constituted an advisory majority defined. This is important and cannot be disregarded, irrespective of which way the vote went - that is not the point. Would 50.1 % to 49.9% amount to a decisive majority ? The question is by definition unanswerable because the definition what of constitutes a significant majority in this context was never been defined in the first place. If you disagree please can you find me the section in the Referendum Act that does this as I may have missed-it ? In the spirit of informed democracy I must always open to evidentially based counter views. The broader issue of the constitutional validity of the Government's alleged authority to trigger Article 50 will, I believe, be examined in the Supreme Court later this year. That is because their is a strong body of evidence that supports the view that as a matter of law a proper debate in both the Commons and the Lords and Act of Parliament is required to make the triggering of Article 50 constitutionally valid. Personally, I have always been ( and remain ) a strong supporter of the importance and need for proper legal proper legal process and Parliamentary Democracy - I always feel it is a far sounder system that rule by populist opinion, particularly on complicated matters of the national interest. it's called a democracy.ViewDate:
11th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hmmm.....now let's reflect on that a little...advisory, inconclusive referendum result were 2 out of 4 of the Nation vote Remain and whereby the aggregate vote is marginal ( 51 people in the room vote one way and the other 49 vote the other) doesn't sound like a democratic mandate for anything other than an unconstitutional mess. Shame that you seem to define that in terms of a petty minded question or sulk. That's not the stuff of informed democracy is it, which may explain why the matter will in the first instance be heard in the Supreme Court later this year. Perhaps you should attend to explain why you think the matter is petty? I am sure the judges would be delighted to listen to your informed evidenced and we'll argued case. Why not put the date in your diary?ViewDate:
11th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?If the truth was that voters didn't have any meaningful insight into what the implications of a Leave vote was going to be then the logical conclusion was that it was an act of gross irresponsibility to have had a referendum in the first place. That is why we have ( had) a Parliamentary democracy in the first place. As regards being told what to do by corrupt ( or is it inept) politicians, then I don't think that is exclusively an EU issue. Whatever the view the outcome of the ( advisory, divisive and inconclusive) referendum vote is now becoming pretty clear as a matter of informed fact. I will pick that one-up later with examples to illustrate the facts.ViewDate:
10th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello Keith Probably best not to rely on PGW as a character reference given his rather questionable life in Vichy France where he had a comfortable life serving the Reich's propoganda machine during WW2. I will send you some links to a few unbiased informate sites that will give you to access some more detailed informed facts to help you reflect on why voters were badly mis-sold the Brexit. I'll also send you some links to reliable material that will help you better understand the economic facts and reality of how the EU actually operates and the options that the UK has in all this mess. I also hasten to add that I am far from an EU devotee and I do not think the Euro was a sensible proposition, but that largely misses the point. And let's not overplay the virtues of the UK democratic system relative to other democratic EU states - we have an unelected House of Lords and the first past the post system hardly supports broad consensus politics. In fact the UK system is in many ways out-of-date when compared to many other modern democratic models - plenty of informed stuff available from the Constitutional Reform Society on that subject - so less preachng on that from the Brexiteers would be a good start. Lord Sugar's analogy with the Board Room ( sulks) was a good one - I added the extra bit for good measure but it makes the reasonably well, even though you may not like the style.ViewDate:
10th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Oh dear, we still seem to be missing the democratic point here. I fear that little progress can be made. Tatty bye for nowViewDate:
10th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Exactly the point Lochinvar. As informed democrats we should be able to make up our minds on the basis of accurate and well informed information and the political class should have to meet at least the same standards that apply in other walks of life. If that rule has not been met, then the contract should be rescindable as it is all other walks of life. We live in a Parliamentary democracy - that means the outcome of the Referendum has to be ratified by due constitutional process for it to have democratic validity - that is a matter of constitutional law - it's called a Parliamentary democracy. The Referendum Act did not state that the result of the Referendum, irrespective of whichever way the vote went, was binding - it was advisory only. Do also remember that the UK consists of 4 not 2 nations - 2 of the 4 nations voted Remain and 2 of the 4 nations voted Leave. That is an advisory, inconclusive result. To put it another way, when 52 people in a room saying one thing and 49 people in a room say the opposite, it tells you nothing other than the outcome in inconclusive. Informed democratic fact. That is why we have ( or did ) operate on the basis of a Parliamentary democracy - to argue otherwise is tantamount admitting you do not like the rules of a Parliamentary democracy - result = chaos and division, which is were we are now.ViewDate:
10th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello jc1 Absolutely agree. We should all simply demand better. If bankers are told to behave responsibly and tell the truth, then why should we expect less from our politicians, irrespective of the arguments or political persuasion. This is especially important for matters that affect the national interest, such as the Referendum. If you are mis-sold a pension or a car or anything else for the matter, then you can cancel the contract as a matter of course and / or claim compensation for losses. I am truly amazed people still work on the basis that politicians can just lie because that's what politicians do. If they lost their parliamentary privilege when they can be shown to have mis-led or simply lied on matters of the national interest, then the politicos and their cronies would no longer be able to hide and walk away from the mess they created. Beats me. More like feudalism than a modern democracy - it needs to be addressed.ViewDate:
9th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello Keith Certain statements are relatively easily verifiable - for example, the net contribution the UK makes to the EU budget is relatively easy to ascertain - whereas projections are less easy to substantiate - George Osborne's comments for example. The figures on the UK's net contribution to the EU is around £133 million not the £350 million cited by Leave. That is a simple fact. This equates to around 30p per day for each of us in the UK. That can be verified by looking the figures from the Office of National Statisics. George Osborne's projections had some reasonable calculations to underpin them, but presenting these as more than estimates was not helpful to anyone. The UK pays far less than the vast majority of comparable EU members. However, the issue in play is that even if the UK triggers Article 50 we will still have to pay to be able to trade: it is not a zero game. Key point. The UK has to be able to trade with the EU on favourable terms to survive - that is a simple fact. We depend on the EU - 50% plus of our exports go to the EU whereas only 17% of the trade goes in the other direction That by definition means it is a delusional to believe the UK has a strong hand: it would be nice to think we have but the terms of trade mean we simply do not. To access the market that we all in some way or the other depend on, we have to pay to play - simple fact. So, Leave's argument that we will save lots of money if we leave the EU cannot be correct. Just look at the figures for what Norway has to pay to trade - it will make you realise that we actually have a very good deal. Norway also has to accept free movement of labour and abide by around 70% of EU directives. Their contribution rates is also set to rise substantially. To cap it all, Norway has to belong to the Schengen zone, the UK does not. Norway are excluded from talks - they simply have to accept what they are given - simple fact. If Article 50 is triggered the UK will be in the same place as Norway, or worse, as the EU will now need to show the other states that you cannot expect to me a member of the EU club and not abide by the same rules because you think you are different or better. The moral of this sorry story is that if you opt-out of something you need to have a better place to go to. As I believe Lord Sugar said, or words to that effect, you don't get a better deal by throwing you toys out of your pram and leaving the boardroom ( like a sulky adolescent ). The reality is that we should be staying in the EU club to carry on fighting our corner and get back in the ring when we've taken a fews hits to the chin. That's what grown-ups have to do and that is what wins respect around the boardroom table.ViewDate:
9th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
What should the government do next?Hello Nape Which countries are you referring to ? The UK is not part of the Eurozone. The money that went to Greece and the other Eurozone countries as bail-out, primarily came from the European Central Bank ( ECB) which is the central bank for countries that are in the Euro. The UK is not in the Eurozone and the UK does not therefore fund the ECB. It is thus largely factually inaccurate to believe that the UK has been party to bailing out Greece or any other Eurozone member states. The ballooning of UK post financial debt crisis was caused by the collapse of the UK's banking sector and the ' bail-out ' which cost us taxpayers billions was a UK affair. Simple but tad complicated fact. Problem is that the EU myth machine blames all the ills of the UK on the EU. If life were that simple. I'm afraid the reality is that our mess is all down to us. The collapse in Sterling, new QE programme and cut in interest rates ( due to the Brexit debacle ) means that we now have a lot more debt on the UK's books for the forseable. This has nothing to do with the EU - it is all of our own making - and I'm afraid indigestable as it may be, it's a regretable fact of life.ViewDate:
9th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello Mollflanders That wasn't really the point of the question - the questions were - have people been mis-sold a Brexit ( if your answer is no they have not, then please provide soundly based evidence to support Leave's figures and assertions were accurate ); and IF politicians misrepresent and mislead should they be held accountable ?ViewDate:
9th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Have we been mis-sold a Brexit ? Should politicians be held to account ?Hello Irene88 That may or may not tbe the case but let's consider the facts on an informed basis.. Stockmarkets in the short term at least, do not necessarily reflect the underlying health of the overall economy, they simply reflect sentiment and the forces of supply and demand. Stockmarkets often rise when unemployment is on the up one of the - contradictions of capitalism. But, the exchange rate and the state of the public finances are far better reflectors of real economic health. Sterling has fallen to a 33 year low in short order time and the Bank of England has now been forced to push interest rates to virtually zero and turn the printing pressed back on. That's the real economy in play and it is not indicative of a healthy economy or greater future prosperity. If money printing and a plunging exchange rate is the road to greater prosperity then we should have moved to Zimbabwe. Your housebuilder's joy simply reflects that the goverment now looks set to be taking-up the heavy lifting by having to borrow to fund housebuilding. Building more houses must make sense, but it has nothing whatsover to do leaving the EU - no correlation there I am afraid so doesn't pass the simple facts test. It is equally difficult to see how a plunging exchange rate, rising cost inflation, and yet more QE is good news or how the media is exagerating anything. All this means less money for health and pensions - I am afraid that is simple a financial fact of life. And we now have today's report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies estimating that the Brexit will cost more than 300,000 UK jobs. Let me guess the resonse to that one ....more biased experts telling us all a lot of exagerrated rubbish ! Yes and pigs might fly as well.ViewDate:
8th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
What should the government do next?Nape I am not sure why you think the decline in the value of Sterling has something to do with the UK joining the EU - Sterling has generally been in relative decline every since the early years of the 20th century and in particular since the end of the Second World War....remember Harold Wilson's devaluation and the pound in your pocket - that happended before the UK joined the EU. Since the Brexit vote Sterling has now slumped to its lowest value for around 33 years....and all in a matter of a few weeks. Great result. I suppose it's easy to blame the UK's relative economic under-performance on the EU but I am afraid that is all down to us in the UK not doing enough to stay competitive in key areas - for example, UK productivity is poor in comparision to many key EU member states, including France, Germany, Holland, Denmark, Finland and Sweden. As a simple matter of fact that shabby performance cannot be blamed on the Eurocrats or the UK belonging to the EU. The UK simply has not kept up the necessary pace - its not been a conspiracy and leaving the EU will make it harder not easier to stay in the game - simple economic fact of life. Bit like saying that the right treatment for a septic left foot is to amputate your right leg - the treatment doesn't solve the problem of the gammy left foot and you've now only got one left to hobble around on. Sad but true. And remember what the UK was called before we joined the EU ? The sick man of Europe - well things are great but they are a heck of a lot better than they were before we joined. If the UK is to prosper in the 21st Century we must finally put the 2 World Wars behind us - that is not to say we forget the sacrifices of those that fought or were bombed and I am sure we all have relatives that lost their lifes or were injured - me included. And let's remember that the founding fathers of the EU set it up to avoid Europe tearing itself apart again in bloody conflict. The newly emergent divisive nationalism that is spreading across Europe is beginning to look like the early stages of a re-run of the 1930's, and we all know were that one took us. Peace and prosperity in Europe has come with the small price tag of co-operation with and more integration with our neigbours - it is a price well worth paying, ironically for reasons that you cite. If you have been misled into thinking that the UK is subject to a mass of overarching laws from the EU that always trump UK law and that affect every corner of our lives all the time, I can send you a link to Professor Dugan's short video that unravels fact from myth - it's well worth watching as it is based on well informed facts and those have been in short supply recently. It certainly helped me to see the wood from the trees.ViewDate:
8th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
What should the government do next?Hello anf1408 No offence taken. The problem is that it's not going to be easy or frankly possible to deal with the aftermath of the mass mis-selling scandal. We are all now well and truly up the proverbial creak with a very small paddle that has very large hole in the middle and wonky handle, paddling a very leaky canoe. Simple fact. The sad fact is that we now have a very disunited Kingdom which may well disintegrate and disintegration does not generally end happily for anyone - history at least teaches us all that. That may well suit some of the Brexit warlords but it will most certainly not be to the benefit the mass of ordinarily folk, not least those who had set their expectations on a better life post-Brexit. You think it couldn't get worse ? Just watch and learn - it already has and it will get much ( much ) worse. Whatever the outcome, half the UK will feel that democracy has failed them, which it has. What's the solution then ? When there has been a monumental cock-up early acceptance is the only way forward, unsavory as that may feel. That's not to say that the solution is the EU status quo because that doesn't solve the issues. There are at least 17 million people in the UK that want some significant change and it is change that we all need. But that change must bring improvements, not the reverse. Informed democracy must be given its proper place. Politicians MUST be held accountable for any misrepresentations that they may have made during the Referendum - everyone in the UK deserves better than this shambles. That needs a great coming together to force that accountability before Article 50 is triggered. An immediate independent public enquiry is needed to expose the real facts with a 6 month deadline. It can be done. The facts must be exposed. We all need to have a proper understanding of what the real options are so that we, the people of the UK, can make a fully informed decision based on the real facts with a clear articulation of the art of the possible. That has simply not happened. It's wake-up time.ViewDate:
8th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
Is Theresa May's 'Brexit-lite' an acceptable compromise? - [DELETED_MEMBER]Reality check time beckons for those living on planet Brexit. The referendum result was advisory and in reality inconclusive, aside from which triggering Article 50 most probably requires an Act of Parliament after a proper debate is had in both the Commons and the Lords. It's called parliamentary democracy. It's wakey wakey time for inhabitants of planet Brixit deluded ( or planet Brexit mis-sold to be more precise). The Brexit facts of life run along the following lines: much as some Brexiteers would like, the UK is not a self-suffiicient desert island. Over 50% of UK trade is with the EU, whereas only 17% of EU trade is with the UK - that means the EU can live without the UK without too much grief ( in fact many EU members may welcome it now), but the UK simply cannot live without the EU. Simple fact of economic life. And just to keep matters in perspective, the UK does more trade with Ireland than it does with China & India combined. Germany is one of the world's biggest and most successful exporters, which means the reality is that EU regulation has not served to block or inhibit trade - if it had been so, Germany quite simply would not have been so successful. Simple fact of life. The so-called alternative models ( Norway, Switzerland etc) all require substantial payments to the EU ( greater than the per capita 30 pence net per day the UK currently pays). Non-EU country still has to generally abide with the free movement of labour rule: if you don't like it then you don't get access to the free market - simple fact. To illustrate that simple fact - Norway has to abide by around 70% of EU legislation and has to become part of the Shengen zone. It pays a lot of money to the EU and it's contribution in the round it set to increase. in 2014 Switzerland voted in a referendum to cap EU immigration nunbers within 3 years. EU represatatives have made it abundantly clear to Switzerland that if it does not not abide by the free movement of labour it will loose its current ( second division ) trading status with the EU that the Brexit vote will make it even more unlikely that any compromise on immigration will be possible. So, expecting that the Brexit will deliver on the promises and that all will be just fine and dandy for the UK after it all settles down is regretably simply delusional. Canada is not comparable to the UK in this context, aside from which its 7 year+ negotiations with the EU are still incomplete and do not in any event capture services - like it or not, the UK is a services based economy. Mis-sold a Brexit ?ViewDate:
8th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
What should the government do next?Not so much a rant as a statement of simple facts - but then simple facts seem to a simple novelty for Leave. Just to remind you again - the Referendum Act did not make the result binding on anyone - simple fact. Well informed legal argument underpins the view that triggering Article 50 requires an Act of Parliament after proper debate in both the Commons and the Lords. It's called Parliamentary democracy, tedious and troublesome as that may be to some - simple fact. Ah yes and there is also the non-existent definition of what a majority amounts to under the advisory Referendum ...would 50.1% to 49.9% be acceptable then ? That is a simple majority - problem is this is not a simple issue for the simple minded and never will be - simple fact. Perhaps Leave just generally regard the simple facts of life on post-Brexit planet deluded as simply inconvenient .....UK lost its triple AAA rating - simple fact; Sterling plunges which means family budgets are hit for the forseable - simple fact; Treasury budget deficit majorily worse - simple fact; interest rates head to 0% and more QE - simple fact; pensions deficits widen by billions as a direct result - simple fact; triple lock pensions hit - simple fact; business confidence tanks - simple fact; value of British passport tanks - simple fact; no free movement of labour = no access to free market - simple fact; Norway has to belong to Schengen - simple fact; net cost of membership of the EU is 30 pence per day per UK citizen - simple fact. 50% + of UK's exports go to the EU and only 17% of EU exports come to the UK - EU can live without the EU but the UK cannot live without the EU - simple fact. UK does more trade with Ireland than with China & India combined- simple fact. The list of simple facts is well, simply endless. I know it's difficult to accept you've been mis-sold a Brexit but let's at least make some effort.ViewDate:
7th Aug 2016Informed democrat commented on:
What should the government do next?Well let's just think about that one for a bit shall we....Brexit vote actually amounted to an inconclusive conclusion from the United Kingdom ( remember that's 4 not 2 nation states) based on a referendum that actually had no legally binding mandate. Let's also not forget that the result was to a large degree based around Brexit mis-selling, rather like the PPI mis-selling scandal. Let's just get back to planet reality to consider the on-going Brexit slow motion train crash - UK looses it's AAA credit rating; value of sterling plunges; interest rates head to zero or worse; business confidence tanks; pension deficits soar; state pension triple-lock under threat; cost of living starts to rise due to weak exchange rate; budget deficit heads rapidly North; business confidence tanks; the relative status & value of a UK passport slumps to below that of a Bulgarian passport ( no disrespect to Bulgarain intended ); UK's international reputation in tatters; and the dear departed Mr Cameron and his HMS blunder crew are told by the Treasury Select Committee that the Brexit no plan whatsoever plan was tantamount to gross negligence. Still, not to bother, or as good old corporal Jones would have said, don't panic and nt to worry, the intrepid Brexit trior will be sitting at the EU Brexit poker game with a hand of cards that resembles Mr Bun the Baker & Happy Families, not a royal flush or 3 aces! Oh dear, what a dreadful dog's dinner...thanks so much Brexiteers.